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Who Should the Celtics Take With the Third Pick in the 2016 NBA Draft?

Feb 6, 2016; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans forward Deyonta Davis (23) shoots on Michigan Wolverines forward D.J. Wilson (5) in the second half at Crisler Center. Michigan State won 89-73. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

There are good prospects in this draft after Simmons and Ingram, however, there isn’t clear separation in that next or an obvious next star. And there are also, in my view a couple of potential landmine candidates.

This puts Celtic’s GM Danny Ainge in a bit of a tight spot, the third pick is going to have high expectations by the fan base and media, but leaves him with a significant possibility of missing on the pick only to watch a player taken afterwards excel.

To look a little further at the choices at the three spot, or after, I made a few charts based on the top prospects in both the Draft Express website and my workhorse PAWS model, then one that combines information from both the analytic model and scouting ratings. Continue Reading

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Revisiting Preseason Highly Plausible Projections

Apr 27, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) and center Mason Plumlee (24) head to the bench for a time out in the second half of game five of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Now that the season is over, I can estimate the net amount of error from having inaccurate playing time estimates by running the preseason player efficiency projection through the actual minutes played by every player on the roster in what is known as a retrodiction, an exercise I did last year as well. In addition to providing a measure of the error introduced simply by missing on the minutes projections, the exercise also gives an estimate of which teams added the most talent weighted by playing time or lost the most expected production Continue Reading